SLV Silver ETF Skyrockets 171% YTD on China Export Ban; 2026 Targets $75-109 Amid Supply Crisis

Data verified as of: December 29, 2025, 4:57 PM CET The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) trades at 66.04 USD on Monday, December 29, 2025, down from Friday's close of 71.12 USD but still up a staggering 171 percent year-to-date from the January low of 26.22 USD. The silver ETF hit an all-time high of 71.22 USD just two days ago, establishing it as one of the most explosive commodity rallies in 2025. Volume surged to 36.4 million shares on December 27, signaling retail and institutional appetite for silver exposure. The fundamental driver is a structural supply crisis colliding with surging industrial demand. Unlike gold, which is primarily an investment asset, over 50 percent of annual silver consumption comes from technology and manufacturing. The International Energy Agency estimates that by 2030, solar and electric vehicle sectors alone will consume 50 percent of global silver output, leaving minimal supply for jewelry, coins, and investment. This inelastic industrial demand means factories continue buying at any price to keep production running. The most critical catalyst is China's new export restrictions on refined silver effective January 1, 2026. Starting tomorrow, China will restrict refined silver shipments, tightening an already-strained global supply chain. Industrial regions now have barely 30 to 45 days of accessible silver reserves. The price divergence between paper-traded and physical metal is explosive: Shanghai physical silver trades above 80 USD per ounce, while COMEX futures remain artificially depressed at 30 to 35 USD. This 40 to 50 USD spread signals a massive arbitrage opportunity and indicates that COMEX no longer reflects true physical scarcity. Analyst forecasts are bullish. Consensus expectations place silver between mid-50s and low-60s USD per ounce in 2026 under stable economic conditions. More aggressive scenarios target 75 to 85 USD in Q1-Q2 2026 as consolidation, then a renewed rally driven by industrial demand in summer 2026. The most bullish case suggests silver closes 2026 near 109 USD, representing a 37 percent gain from current levels. From a technical perspective, SLV trades above its 50-day moving average (approximately 61 USD) and 200-day average (approximately 52 USD), confirming a strong long-term uptrend. Resistance sits at 71.22 USD (all-time high). Support levels are at 63 USD (key technical level) and 55 USD (critical support from consolidation in October-November). A break above 71 USD targets 75 to 80 USD, matching the aggressive 2026 forecasts. Risk exists. Silver is volatile, with a beta-adjusted 29 percent standard deviation. If industrial demand weakens due to global recession or EV production slowdowns, silver could fall sharply. Additionally, if COMEX and Shanghai prices arbitrage closes rapidly due to Chinese export restrictions being reversed or waived, the physical premium could collapse, dragging spot prices lower. For investors, SLV at 66 USD offers exposure to a genuine supply crisis with structural tailwinds. The 2026 consensus of 55 to 60 USD USD provides downside support. The bullish case of 75 to 109 USD provides asymmetric upside if China's export ban remains in force. Traders should use support at 55 USD as a stop-loss and target 72 USD for resistance resistance, then 80 USD for the medium-term target. The ETF's low correlation to SPY (0.10) makes it attractive for portfolio diversification. Disclaimer: Educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Silver is highly volatile and subject to industrial demand, geopolitical, and policy risks. ETF prices can decline sharply. Consult a licensed advisor before trading commodities or commodity ETFs.